Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2341

   Mesoscale Discussion 2341
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of north-central Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 675...

   Valid 302347Z - 010115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 675 continues.

   SUMMARY...The most favorable corridor for tornadoes should be
   confined to several counties in north-central Kansas during the next
   couple of hours -- within the northern portion of Tornado Watch 675.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data shows a long-lived, loosely
   organized cluster of storms tracking northeastward in Russell and
   Lincoln Counties KS -- which has produced several periodic/mostly
   brief tornadoes. Ahead of this activity, a narrow corridor of
   surface-based buoyancy (albeit weak) remains in place amid an
   enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (likely around
   250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH per mesoanalysis and VWP data). As the
   cluster of storms continues northeastward, this will likely be the
   most favorable area for additional tornadoes during the next couple
   of hours -- before storms move into the cooler/stable air to the
   north. 

   The environment remains conditionally favorable farther south where
   a warmer boundary layer is contributing to greater buoyancy.
   However, an approaching dry slot evident in WV imagery and the
   strongest low-level mass response shifting northward casts
   uncertainty on storm development here.

   ..Weinman.. 09/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39579721 39349718 39109748 38959787 38949820 39029849
               39179853 39379843 39629808 39719793 39729761 39709737
               39579721 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH