Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2331

   Mesoscale Discussion 2331
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

   Areas affected...Far southeastern North Dakota into far
   northwest/west-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282149Z - 282245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very localized and low-confidence risk of damaging wind
   gusts and a tornado is possible across parts of far southeastern
   North Dakota into far northwestern/west-central Minnesota during the
   next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster has evolved along an
   east/west-oriented warm front west of Fargo, ND. This storm has
   shown transient signs of rotation/organization. While it is unclear
   if the inflow for this activity is truly surface-based (given cool
   surface temperatures along/north of the warm front), the MVX VWP
   shows a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250 m2/s2 0-1
   km SRH), which will conditionally support embedded low-level
   mesocyclones and some risk for damaging wind gusts and a tornado if
   storms can root near the surface. Overall, confidence in this
   scenario is low and any risk should remain spatially localized for
   the next hour or so.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   46789745 47029710 47059659 46959610 46749598 46439601
               46319640 46349700 46439740 46659753 46789745 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH