Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2311

   Mesoscale Discussion 2311
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0659 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

   Areas affected...far eastern New Mexico into southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192359Z - 200200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of strong to severe wind and marginally
   severe hail will be possible this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues near the surface trough
   across western Texas into eastern New Mexico. While the air mass in
   this area remains moderately unstable amid steep lapse rate
   profiles, deep layer shear is fairly weak (around 20-30 kts). This
   is also mostly confined to the the area immediately near the surface
   trough. This will likely lead to outflow dominant storms with
   potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind and perhaps
   some marginally severe hail. As such, the threat is expected to
   remain fairly localized and should decrease with loss of daytime
   heating. This will likely preclude the need for watch issuance.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32130391 32740322 33840208 34800153 35030133 35160090
               35030051 34790017 33720037 32720107 31880193 31530253
               31350318 31330357 31460387 31730402 32130391 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN