Mesoscale Discussion 2309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026
Areas affected...northwest Oklahoma into much of central to
northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191934Z - 192130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will develop into northwest Oklahoma, and from
central into northeast Kansas later this afternoon. Scattered severe
wind gusts and sporadic marginal hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...A cold front extends from the OK/northern TX Panhandles
into central KS, and from northern KS into southeast NE. Strong
heating and a plume of steep low-level lapse rates exists ahead of
this cold front, with temperatures near 100 F from TX into southern
KS. Despite boundary layer mixing, dewpoints remain near 60 F over
the eastern TX Panhandle, with mid 60s F from western OK toward
Wichita.
The 18Z AMA soundings shows moderate instability, though shear is
weak. Still, mean southwest flow through a deep layer will support
east/northeast storm motions, with a bit stronger flow overall into
KS.
Visible imagery and radar already show agitated CU fields and
initial deeper convection developing west of KGAG in OK, and this is
where initial storms are expected in the near term. Additional
storms will form along the cold front later this afternoon into KS.
Despite weak shear, thermodynamics appear to support multicell storm
mode with damaging wind gust potential with moderate instability,
steep low-level lapse rates and high DCAPE. A few of the stronger
storms may briefly produce hail over 1.00" diameter.
..Jewell.. 09/19/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36659823 35389993 35310030 35500042 35920040 36620006
37309956 38109917 38919877 39239819 39459744 39689676
39629600 39249588 38669623 36659823
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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