Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2308

   Mesoscale Discussion 2308
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0445 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and
   northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182145Z - 182345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind and hail risk may continue into the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells have developed within the upslope
   regime south of a stationary front across eastern Colorado. Storm
   coverage will continue to increase as forcing for ascent overspreads
   the region from the western trough. Moisture across eastern Colorado
   remains somewhat limited, with dew points in the low to mid-50s F
   and around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Nonetheless, steep low to
   mid-level lapse rates may support a few instances of hail and wind.
   Higher theta-e air is in place across portions of western Kansas and
   Nebraska. As storms tend to cluster and move eastward through the
   evening, some damaging wind potential may spread eastward. Overall,
   this threat looks to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 09/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39510384 40290317 40760236 40980173 41100114 41080073
               40950037 40710010 39879992 39360023 38800113 38700145
               38630200 38590251 38630303 38690331 38760356 38810363
               39510384 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN