Mesoscale Discussion 2305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
Areas affected...Parts of southwest NE and the NE Panhandle into
northeast CO/northwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 172211Z - 180115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon
into the evening.
DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary front is draped from northern KS
into southwest NE and northeast CO this afternoon. South of the
front, the environment is characterized by seasonably warm
temperatures, relatively deep mixing, and steep low-level lapse
rates. North of the front, temperatures are cooler, but rich
moisture is in place with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F.
Development of generally high-based convection is underway near the
front, and storm coverage is expected to increase into early evening
as a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moves through the
region. The initial high-based development could pose a localized
threat of severe gusts, given the presence of steep low-level lapse
rates. The more favorable environment is located north of the front,
due to the richer moisture and stronger buoyancy (MLCAPE of
near/above 2000 J/kg), and stronger deep-layer shear resulting from
backed low-level flow.
There may be a brief window of opportunity for surface-based
supercell development near and just north of the front. With time,
convection may become somewhat elevated as it spreads increasingly
northward of the front, though moderate effective shear may continue
to favor occasional storm organization. Relatively weak midlevel
lapse rates and generally isolated coverage of organized storms are
expected to limit the magnitude of the severe threat, but localized
severe gusts and isolated hail appear possible from late afternoon
into at least the early evening.
..Dean/Guyer.. 09/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 40000051 39590141 39750212 40530383 40890395 41230404
41830392 41990369 42080285 41940201 41700082 41370046
40000051
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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