Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2299

   Mesoscale Discussion 2299
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0911 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Areas affected...central and eastern Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150211Z - 150315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe gust or two are possible in the next few hours. A
   downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears unlikely given
   downstream stabilization.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to progress eastward across central
   IA, and is approaching the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 669. East
   of the watch bounds, surface temperatures have cooled into the lower
   70s F, with buoyancy struggling to build farther to the east. Since
   severe gusts have also not been observed with the progressive
   portion of the line for the past one and a half hours, the current
   thinking is that the severe threat should diminish. Therefore, while
   a severe gust or two still cannot be ruled out, the threat should be
   isolated enough to preclude a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

   LAT...LON   40889352 42139355 42419347 42669314 42729254 42559193
               42129157 41389167 41019199 40829304 40889352 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH