Mesoscale Discussion 2296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Areas affected...portions of western into northern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142332Z - 150030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail may accompany
one of the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain sparse,
so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
along a confluence zone, where maximized 925 hPa frontogenesis and
850 hPa WAA are taking place. These storms are developing atop a
stable boundary layer, with 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE constrained above 850
hPa. As such, the ongoing storms are likely elevated in nature, and
are benefiting from the strong tropospheric flow and 50 kts of
effective bulk shear. A couple of marginally severe hailstones may
occur with the stronger, sustained updrafts. However, any severe
threat that materializes will likely be limited, so a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/14/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42029543 41999586 42019594 42049603 42099609 42289591
42859504 43369406 43449336 43199293 42719313 42309404
42029543
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
Source link