Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2294

   Mesoscale Discussion 2294
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142023Z - 142230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through late
   afternoon across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Strong wind
   gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two will be possible through
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Pockets of stronger heating behind earlier convection
   has allowed temperatures to rise into the 80s across southeast NE
   and far southwest IA. Additional heating and warm advection through
   the remainder of the afternoon will aid in further destabilization
   across the region. Northward extent of surface-based convective
   potential remains uncertain given a cooler boundary layer roughly
   along/north of the I-80 corridor.

   Moderate instability is expected to continue to spread north over
   the next few hours within a favorably sheared environment. Where
   stronger low-level warming occurs, surface-based convective
   potential will be greater. Low-level winds have remained
   backed/southeasterly, promoting 0-1 km SRH greater than 250 m2/s2
   per regional VWP data. Storms will pose a risk for damaging gusts
   given strong background flow and steepened low-level lapse rates. If
   a semi-discrete supercell mode can be maintained and become
   surface-based, a tornado or two also will be possible. Modestly
   steep midlevel lapse rates and mildly cool (-9 to -7 C at 500 mb per
   18z LBF and OAX RAOBS) temperatures aloft could also support large
   hail if storm mode remains favorable. While the overall scenario
   remains somewhat conditional on storm mode and whether or not
   surface-based convection can develop, the environment could support
   at couple of severe storms, and watch issuance may be needed in the
   next 1-2 hours.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 09/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

   LAT...LON   41119820 41739755 42059689 42429592 42229490 41719433
               40879422 40309569 40029723 40089770 40559802 41119820 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN