Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2291

   Mesoscale Discussion 2291
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Kansas into far northern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 130036Z - 130130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail will increase over the
   next few hours as storms increase in coverage and traverse a surface
   boundary over southern KS. A few significant severe wind/hail events
   may occur with the strongest storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   will be considered in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are rapidly increasing in coverage and
   intensity along a surface baroclinic boundary. These storms are
   expected to propagate eastward along the boundary over the next
   several hours, where ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear are
   present (i.e. 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear,
   respectively). Supercells and multicells should be the main storm
   mode, at least initially. However, if storms can merge, then a
   cold-pool-driven MCS may manifest. Given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
   rates present (per the 00Z DDC observed sounding), supercell
   structures may produce 2+ inch diameter hail, with 75+ mph gusts
   possible with multicell structures or especially an MCS.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/13/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37859887 37849689 37649582 37309561 37029581 36849654
               36809733 36869791 37059845 37859887 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN