Mesoscale Discussion 2289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026 Areas affected...far northwestern Oklahoma into southwest and south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667... Valid 122247Z - 122345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...Additional northward development of scattered strong to severe storms is expected into southwestern KS over the next few hours. Severe hail and wind gusts will be the main threats. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop northward along the southwestern KS/northwestern OK border area, preceded by a well sheared and unstable airmass, characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Multiple surface boundaries are evident via observations and visible satellite, with the primary boundary located from just northeast of DDC, eastward to well east of ICT. Agitated CU, from Harper County, OK to DDC, may also be developing on a secondary boundary. The current thinking is that convective initiation will likely occur or east of DDC in the next few hours. Storms should be initially supercellular, accompanied by a severe hail risk, with some stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Convection may then merge into a small cluster/possible cold-pool-driven MCS, and traverse the zonal boundary across southern KS later this evening. Should this scenario unfold, severe gusts will become the main threat, with 75+ mph gusts possible given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates present (per the 18Z DDC observed sounding). ..Squitieri.. 09/12/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36449950 36509999 36580016 36720043 36850044 36950046 37030045 37200042 37699995 37789982 37869964 37939947 37979930 38039898 38069876 38079799 37989656 37909644 37689645 37439665 37279699 37099753 36769849 36589906 36449950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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