Mesoscale Discussion 2271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western/northern
Kansas and far southeastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 082208Z - 090015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with widely
scattered thunderstorms through this evening, with the greatest
potential likely extending from eastern Colorado into portions of
far western Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery depict a
well-defined cold front extending southwestward from central Iowa
into northeastern New Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms have formed along this boundary across portions of
northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska as of 2205 UTC. Generally
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along and south of the surface cold
front, where temperatures are noted to be in the low 100s F. While
effective shear remains rather weak within the warm sector
(generally 20-25 kts or less), dewpoint depressions approaching or
exceeding 40 F, steep low-level lapse rates, and MLLCLs of 2.5-3 km
may support isolated damaging wind gusts with stronger downdrafts.
Farther west, thunderstorms have formed along the Front Range of
Colorado and northeastern New Mexico. Latest high-res guidance
suggests that a somewhat better organized cluster of thunderstorms
may evolve off of the Colorado Front Range later this
afternoon/evening in the wake of the cold front. While available
buoyancy will be weak, similarly steep low-level lapse rates,
modestly greater effective shear, and marginally stronger mid-level
flow (as indicated by recent objective analysis and the PUX VAD
profile) may promote a locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind
gusts. Explicit wind gust forecasts by recent HRRR/RRFS runs support
this and suggest some potential for isolated gusts up to 60-70 mph
should a stronger cluster evolve.
Trends will continue to be monitored, but the overall severe risk is
expected to remain isolated and limited in magnitude. Thus, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Chalmers/Gleason.. 09/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38599889 38090009 37540124 37130183 36860249 36880293
37110400 37850454 38170466 38560472 38960462 39270408
39320349 39340262 39390166 39470082 39570002 39799918
40029850 40259773 40439726 40569686 40559654 40499634
40309625 39959640 39489684 39129749 38909813 38599889
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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