Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2244

   Mesoscale Discussion 2244
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

   Areas affected...the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 282024Z - 282230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and wind to continue with
   thunderstorms through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity along cold front extending across
   the Carolinas into southern Georgia is ongoing this afternoon, with
   a few cells becoming briefly organized (with echo tops around 30-35
   kft). Overall, storms have struggled to remain organized likely with
   weakening large scale ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates. Ahead
   of the front, daytime heating has allowed development of SBCAPE
   around 1000-2000 J/kg amid deep layer shear around 50-65 kts. A few
   of the longer lived cells that can become organized may pose a risk
   for hail. As cells become clustered and linearly forced along the
   front, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. This will
   continue to be monitored but a watch is unlikely to be needed at
   this time.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
   TAE...

   LAT...LON   31388382 32228228 33628058 35157872 36157700 36387590
               35887550 35497553 35047582 34727628 34447732 34037794
               33627892 33017960 32608010 32278074 31808129 31398194
               31148274 31048346 31068374 31388382