Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2160

   Mesoscale Discussion 2160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0946 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Areas affected...southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633...635...

   Valid 280246Z - 280415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 633, 635
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A bowing complex of thunderstorms will continue to pose a
   risk for severe wind gusts and some hail this evening. It is unclear
   how long the complex will persist, but the environment is likely to
   remain favorable for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0245 UTC, central Plains radar imagery showed a
   well-organized bowing complex moving southward across NE and
   approaching the KS border. This complex has a history of severe wind
   gusts and is maintaining overall intensity. The environment
   downstream remains favorable for severe gusts with large buoyancy
   and 40+ kt of northwesterly effective shear. This suggests the
   complex may remain capable of severe gusts for several more hours.
   Thus, the severe risk continues across WW633 and 635.

   More supercellular activity has also matured along the western flank
   of the complex in the last hour or two. As the low-level jet (30-40
   kt) is forecast to increase tonight, additional upshear development
   is possible with some risk for large hail of 1-2 inches in the most
   intense cores given 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE and increasingly strong
   veering wind profiles with height.

   ..Lyons.. 08/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41690196 41380126 41290013 41149968 39269857 39110008
               39170122 39430158 40530197 41690196 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN