Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2151

   Mesoscale Discussion 2151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

   Areas affected...Northern New Mexico/south-central Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 201958Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected through
   this afternoon and evening, with small to near-severe size hail as
   the primary hazard. A watch is not currently anticipated for these
   storms.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and intensity
   to the northeast of an upper low as of 1955z as ascent continues to
   overspread the discussion area.  Generally weak buoyancy will limit
   the overall intensity of storms and severe risk as the upper low
   lifts northeast, however cool mid-level temperatures and supportive
   shear profiles will result in storms capable of producing copious
   amounts of small to possibly near-severe hail through early evening.
   A watch is not expected for storms in this area.

   Later this afternoon/evening, a more organized severe risk should
   develop over eastern NM in the vicinity of a diffuse surface trough
   and in an environment that will be supportive of supercells. 
   Details regarding this severe threat will be addressed through
   subsequent mesoscale discussions.

   ..Bunting/Hart.. 10/20/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

   LAT...LON   36110664 36390709 37010734 37570705 37720637 37650479
               37370412 37140382 36880368 36590384 36440427 36280553
               36110664