Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2149

   Mesoscale Discussion 2149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

   Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191935Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage
   increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large
   hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across the
   region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented
   band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W
   meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far.

   Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next
   few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt
   deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are
   enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2,
   sufficient for a brief tornado. 

   As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase
   this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends
   dictate.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451
               35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476
               32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596