Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2148

   Mesoscale Discussion 2148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...northern and
   central Delaware...southeast New York...and southwest Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630...

   Valid 271829Z - 272030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 630
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather continues across the watch
   area with the greatest threat in New Jersey.

   DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data shows intense thunderstorms
   ongoing over northern and southwestern portions of NJ as of 1820Z.
   Some supercell characteristics have been observed with these storms,
   with wind damage reported with the southern cluster of storms. The
   inflow air mass to these storms over eastern NJ is warm and quite
   moist with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Additionally, the current KDIX
   VWP is sampling a vertically veering wind profile with around 35 kt
   of deep-layer shear, which will continue to promote embedded
   supercell structures given the moist, unstable environment. In the
   near term, the greatest tornado risk appears to exist with the storm
   over Monmouth County, NJ with the storms over southern NJ being more
   outflow dominant. Otherwise, the primary hazard appears to be
   damaging wind gusts with the ongoing activity.

   ..Mead.. 08/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

   LAT...LON   39647567 40097533 40587459 40627394 39867405 39217460
               39087484 39247549 39647567 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN