|
Mesoscale Discussion 2148 | |
< Previous MD | |
Mesoscale Discussion 2148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Far Southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190117Z - 190345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts of northeast New Mexico this evening, and could also affect far southeast Colorado. Large hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over central Arizona with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow located over the southern Rockies. Large-scale ascent appears to be maximized over northeastern New Mexico where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The airmass across eastern New Mexico is weakly unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings in northeast New Mexico have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with somewhat steep lapse rates above 700 mb. This may be enough for a supercell with potential for large hail. A severe gust or two will may also occur. The severe threat is expected to remain very isolated this evening. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36780483 35970510 35170528 34770503 34600472 34540426 34680384 35060354 36180321 36860311 37230328 37420369 37400403 37270443 36780483 |
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |