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Mesoscale Discussion 2147 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182046Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail later this afternoon from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from east-central CO into northern NM, with low pressure developing ahead of it from northwest NM into southeast CO. Gusty southerly winds are aiding moisture advection into the region with lower 50s F dewpoints. Visible imagery shows clearing east of a dryline and south of the cold front, where MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg has developed. Continued heating should result in scattered storms developing over eastern NM, with meridional flow resulting in northeastward storm motions. Veering and increasing winds with height is resulting in elongated hodographs with around 40 kt effective shear. Lapse rates are not particularly steep today, but sufficient moisture and instability combined with favorable shear should yield a few supercells with a hail threat. ..Jewell.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34210505 35180507 36050512 36800483 37470452 37570401 37390355 36910319 36170315 34690311 34130319 33920427 33950484 34040495 34210505 |
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