Mesoscale Discussion 2146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132058Z - 132300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible into early evening.
DISCUSSION...Despite relatively limited low-level moisture (with
dewpoints in the mid 50s F), modest diurnal heating has resulted in
some destabilization this afternoon across parts of western/central
PA, to the south of a differential heating zone/effective warm
front across northern PA. Some deepening cumulus has been noted from
extreme eastern OH into western PA, in the vicinity of a weak
surface trough/confluence zone. A few developing showers in this
region may mature into thunderstorms, as they move eastward and
downstream MLCAPE increases to near 500 J/kg.
Deep-layer flow is rather strong across the region, with 30-50 kt in
the 850-700 mb layer, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Despite the
limited instability, this kinematic environment could support some
storm organization if convection deepens, especially with any storms
in the vicinity of the differential heating zone. Locally
gusty/damaging winds and small hail could accompany any stronger
cells/clusters within this regime.
..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 41317950 41617849 41607750 41407700 41237700 40987721
40627754 40477787 40347955 40677959 41317950
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