| Mesoscale Discussion 2136 | |
| < Previous MD | |
|
|
Mesoscale Discussion 2136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
Areas affected...southern middle Tennessee...eastern
Mississippi...western and central parts of Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261702Z - 261930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for isolated occurrences of damaging winds is
expected to increase by mid afternoon. A watch appears unlikely due
to the limited areal coverage of the threat.
DISCUSSION...A sub-severe MCS is ongoing across portions of western
and middle TN as of late morning with a southeastward motion of
25-30 kt. Visible satellite imagery indicates additional deepening
cumulus and incipient thunderstorm development over portions of
eastern MS and western AL, in the vicinity of a weak
quasi-stationary boundary analyzed in that area. The air mass across
the discussion area is characterized by temperatures in the mid 80s
to lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s, yielding
MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest objective analysis.
Latest model guidance indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage
this afternoon along the cold pool/gust front associated with the
MCS as well as in the vicinity of the stationary front mentioned
above. Weak mid-level lapse rates and vertical shear are expected to
limit the potential for an organized severe weather threat. However,
steepening low-level lapse rates and the presence of a relatively
moist environment (PW of 1.8-2 inches) suggest the potential for
locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging wind gusts.
..Mead/Mosier.. 08/26/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 32208861 33338889 34858895 35328836 35468783 35398704
34328656 33108675 32238751 32088761 32208861
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
|
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home |
|
Source link