Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2133

   Mesoscale Discussion 2133
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0648 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northwestern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626...

   Valid 252348Z - 260115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and severe hail will
   generally remain focused across parts of northwestern Wisconsin for
   the next couple hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626.

   DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented surface front/wind shift moving
   eastward across far northwestern WI remains the focus for ongoing
   convective clusters, with transient/embedded rotation. Around 30-40
   kt of west-northwesterly deep-layer shear (per DLH VWP data)
   oriented perpendicular to the front and a narrow corridor of
   weak-moderate pre-convective buoyancy should continue to support
   this activity for the next couple hours. Given the clustered mode
   with some deeper/separated cores, the primary concern will continue
   to be damaging wind gusts and severe hail. While unlikely, the
   transient embedded rotation and ongoing cell interactions could
   still support a brief/weak tornado risk, aided by some increase in a
   southerly low-level jet over the next couple hours. With time and
   eastward extent, these storms will move into an increasingly stable
   air mass in north-central WI (evident in surface observations and
   visible satellite imagery). Therefore, a downstream watch is
   unlikely.

   ..Weinman.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...

   LAT...LON   46099243 46539183 46619158 46569131 46329118 45669119
               45249147 45169189 45219268 45379295 45709281 46099243 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN