US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2131

Published Date and Time: 2026-08-25 18:37:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 2131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627...

   Valid 252234Z - 252330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern for at least the next
   few hours. A severe wind swath is possible, with a few gusts
   potentially exceeding 75 mph.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized along the NM/TX/OK border over the
   past hour, with some severe gusts noted, including a measured 73 kt
   gust from the KCAO ASOS. This MCS continues to propagate
   east-southeastward amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer, with
   well over 1500 J/kg MUCAPE noted. Given the degree of evaporative
   cooling potential and convective organization in place, a severe
   wind swath may accompany this MCS as it progresses across the TX
   Panhandle. It is unclear how the severe wind threat will be impacted
   by the westward drifting outflow boundary from another cluster of
   storms. Nonetheless, in the near-term, severe gusts should continue
   to accompany the MCS, some of which may exceed 75 mph.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36830284 37060150 36520059 35810024 35050034 34390099
               34270186 34640257 35180311 35800362 36830284 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



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