Mesoscale Discussion 2130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern and eastern Wisconsin into western Upper Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060006Z - 060130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase in coverage and organization this evening. A few instances of severe hail and perhaps a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing ahead of an approaching cold front over western WI, as deep-layer ascent from a rapidly approaching upper trough and 700 mb CAA overspreads the Upper MS Valley. Ahead of the cold front, Surface-850 mb WAA supports marginal destabilization across Wisconsin into Upper MI, with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE noted per 23Z mesoanalysis. Strong tropospheric wind fields are in place, with 35-50 kts of southerly 925-850 mb flow overspread by 60+ kts of westerlies at the mid-levels, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear. Strong directional wind shear in the 925-500 mb layer supports large, curved hodographs and the associated potential for supercell structures. Nonetheless, buoyancy is scant, largely due to modest low-level moisture, with most of the aforementioned MUCAPE constrained well above 700 mb (per latest RAP forecast soundings). Furthermore, appreciable MLCINH remains in place. While strong forcing and shear support storm organization, limited buoyancy suggests that most storms, including any supercells that materialize, will likely be elevated in nature. Some potential for severe hail exists given strong wind shear coinciding with 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and a damaging gust or two also cannot be ruled out. Overall, the severe threat may remain isolated through the evening and overnight hours. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX... LAT...LON 44179069 45999056 46738987 46908886 46438743 45708714 44658727 44048766 43818831 43788943 44179069
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2130
05
Oct