Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2130

   Mesoscale Discussion 2130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far southwestern Oklahoma into
   northwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252157Z - 252300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may continue to produce
   severe hail and perhaps severe gusts, especially if storms can
   progress further south into a deeper/dry airmass. Trends are being
   monitored closely for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster continues to propagate
   southward, with a history of producing measured hail over 1 inch in
   diameter, with MRMS MESH indicating up to 2 inch diameter hail
   potentially falling. As these storms continue to propagate farther
   south, they will encounter an even drier/deeper boundary layer,
   which may foster enough evaporative cooling to generate a few severe
   gusts via dry microbursts. It is unclear how far south storms will
   progress given increasingly weaker downstream deep-layer shear and
   overall drier air. Convective trends will continue to be monitored
   for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33690050 34890052 35290038 35500018 35520011 35359976
               34389921 33919898 33369923 33249949 33270011 33690050 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN