Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2127

   Mesoscale Discussion 2127
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...far southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...far
   southwest Kansas...western and central parts of the Oklahoma and
   Texas Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 251903Z - 252100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind
   gusts up to 70-80 mph is expected to increase over western parts of
   the discussion area by mid to late afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
   watch is likely by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...In the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
   weak background forcing for ascent, thunderstorms are gradually
   increasing over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and adjacent Raton
   Mesa. Latest HRRR and RRFS time-lagged ensemble guidance indicates a
   subsequent eastward movement of the developing storms toward the OK
   and TX Panhandle between 21Z-23Z. While overall CAPE will remain
   somewhat marginal (750-1000 J/kg), the presence of lapse rates
   greater than 8-8.5 C/km and effective bulk shear of around 25 kt
   will support some organization of the high-based storms, which are
   rooted atop a hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Latest CAM data remain
   in good agreement in depicting storm clustering by early to mid
   evening along a strengthening cold pool. Initially isolated
   occurrences of severe winds may become more numerous at that time
   along with an increased potential for gusts up to 70-80 mph.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36020397 36630388 36920365 37140304 37180226 37140181
               36660113 35940080 35120081 34690101 34570153 34970260
               35230327 35570378 36020397 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN