Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2125

   Mesoscale Discussion 2125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Florida into the lower
   Savannah River Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251614Z - 251845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts appear possible with the most
   intense storms this afternoon. A watch is unlikely due to the
   limited areal extent of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows thunderstorms gradually
   increasing in coverage across portions of the northern FL Peninsula
   and south-central GA, to the south of a quasi-stationary front
   draped across the region. Modification of the 12Z Jacksonville, FL,
   sounding for current surface conditions yields a strongly unstable
   air mass with MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear
   will remain weak across the region, the degree of instability will
   support intense updrafts and subsequent, water-loaded downdrafts
   capable of locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30028196 30028304 30668342 32248183 32788100 32458033
               31288116 30568138 30228138 30028196 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH