Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2124

   Mesoscale Discussion 2124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...Northeast SD into a small part of southeast ND and
   west-central MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

   Valid 250449Z - 250615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue into the early
   morning hours, before an eventual weakening trend.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated elevated supercell has recently intensified
   to the west-northwest of Aberdeen. In the short term, MUCAPE of
   around 2000 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to
   support a threat of hail and localized severe gusts with this cell.
   To the east, a longer-lived storm cluster is moving across northeast
   SD. While this cluster has shown some signs of weakening, localized
   strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as this cluster approaches
   the SD/ND/MN border region. 

   With time, decreasing MUCAPE and increasing CINH with eastward
   extent should tend to result in a general weakening trend overnight,
   though localized hail and gusty winds may continue until convection
   subsides.

   ..Dean.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45709897 45539797 45809760 46139728 46169662 45999630
               45729629 45499649 45149699 45089766 45169874 45299920
               45709897 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN