Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2123

   Mesoscale Discussion 2123
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0916 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...North-central/northeast SD into far southeast ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624...625...

   Valid 250216Z - 250345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 624, 625
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat may spread southeastward into late
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms has recently become somewhat
   better organized south and southwest of Jamestown, ND, with a recent
   gust of 77 mph observed in McIntosh County. The 00Z ABR sounding
   depicted substantial CINH for surface-based parcels, though
   considerably weaker CINH and strong buoyancy for parcels rooted
   around 850 mb. This thermodynamic profile within a modest
   warm-advection regime may allow for persistence of the ongoing
   cluster into late evening as it moves southeastward, assuming the
   cold pool remains sufficiently strong. 

   Severe gusts (potentially near/above 75 mph) will remain possible
   with this cluster as it moves into northeast SD, while isolated hail
   will also be possible with the strongest embedded cells. WW 624 has
   been expanded in order to address this threat.

   ..Dean.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45120036 45959991 46529860 46119719 45499703 45169757
               44969832 44889857 44949946 45120036 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN