Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2122

   Mesoscale Discussion 2122
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0831 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625...

   Valid 250131Z - 250230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts continues
   spreading eastward across parts of eastern North Dakota -- within
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 625.

   DISCUSSION...Following several storm splits and associated mergers,
   a small upscale-growing cluster has evolved along the surface front
   in south-central/southeast ND. Over the next couple hours, this
   cluster will continue southeastward and pose the greatest risk of
   damaging wind gusts -- given the well-established cold pool and
   strong surface-based buoyancy downstream. Additionally, left-movers
   evolving northeastward in north-central SD could interact with this
   cluster and result in additional upscale growth. However, the 00Z
   ABR sounding sampled robust low-level inhibition at the base of the
   EML, which may limit the severe risk with southeastward extent into
   parts of northeastern SD. 

   Farther north, a separate convective cluster/left-mover is tracking
   northeastward across parts of northeastern ND. Around 45 kt of 0-6
   km shear (per MVX VWP data) oriented perpendicular to the surface
   front and moderate surface-based buoyancy should help maintain this
   cluster for the next hour or two. Large hail and damaging winds will
   be the main concern with this activity.

   ..Weinman.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46279996 46999824 47249818 47759848 48159853 48399831
               48499796 48459753 48139718 47719710 47059714 46499757
               46049822 45949881 45929950 46069982 46279996 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN