Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2114

   Mesoscale Discussion 2114
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...northern Maine

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241752Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and
   marginally severe hail appear possible this afternoon into evening.
   A watch is currently not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous vorticity maximum centered over the
   Champlain Valley, visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
   cumulus across the discussion area amidst a warming and
   destabilizing air mass with around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Eventual
   thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon as height
   falls/cooling aloft overspread the warming boundary layer,
   contributing to further air mass destabilization. The kinematic
   environment features strong mid/upper-level winds, resulting in
   long, straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells with an
   associated hail risk. Isolated damaging wind gusts also appear
   possible owing to the steepening low-level lapse rates across the
   region, which will enhance evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud
   layer.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

   LAT...LON   45467106 47446963 47736870 47486768 46866764 45666891
               44967003 44617055 44707100 45467106 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN