Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2105

   Mesoscale Discussion 2105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0449 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southwestern North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 232149Z - 232315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of supercells and organized clusters capable of
   producing large hail and severe wind gusts will increase over the
   next few hours. A watch will be issued shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are evolving along a lee trough in far
   southwestern ND -- potentially being aided by a passing midlevel
   wave farther north (evident in WV imagery). An elongated hodograph
   with clockwise curvature (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) and
   steep midlevel lapse rates atop lower/middle 60s dewpoints will
   support organized clusters and supercell structures capable of
   producing large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer
   shear oriented perpendicular to the lee trough will initially favor
   discrete cells, though localized upscale growth into small clusters
   is possible with time. A watch will be issued shortly.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46170398 47120400 47640394 47870360 47950260 47670210
               46610204 46040230 45910282 45970382 46170398 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN