Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2103

   Mesoscale Discussion 2103
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

   Areas affected...southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 232048Z - 232315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts up to 80 mph
   is expected to increase by late afternoon through this evening. A
   watch is currently not expected due to the limited areal extent of
   the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows gradually deepening
   moist convection along the higher terrain in southeast AZ. To the
   immediate west over the lower desert, a hot, well-mixed boundary
   layer has developed with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
   contributing to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Latest short-term guidance
   indicates a gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity from
   late afternoon into this evening as activity spreads east into the
   more favorable thermodynamic environment. A westerly low-level wind
   component currently being observed by the Tucson VWP may aid in some
   forward propagational characteristics and resultant cold pool
   organization with severe wind gusts up to 80 mph being the primary
   hazard.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31661251 31921330 32661338 32981279 33081149 32871048
               32131016 31541030 31261066 31371145 31661251 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH