Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2101

   Mesoscale Discussion 2101
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

   Areas affected...eastern West Virginia south to northeastern
   Tennessee/western North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241755Z - 241900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Local risk for severe weather is evident in the short
   term, where WW issuance may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...While persistent/dense cloud cover is apparent in
   visible satellite imagery east of the mountains in Virginia, heating
   is ongoing across eastern West Virginia and areas south, where
   clouds are more sparse.  This has resulted in a narrow axis of
   moderate destabilization (1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE).  The
   destabilizing environment has supported a zone of convective
   development -- including a small/organized band of intense storms
   moving across portions of eastern West Virginia.

   Given the cloud cover/low-level stability across the mountains into
   the eastern West Virginia/western Maryland Panhandles and adjacent
   western Virginia, these storms should begin to weaken in the next
   hour or so as they shift eastward.  Farther south however, a broader
   zone of destabilization may support a longer-duration risk for
   strong storms this afternoon.  However, risk for severe weather
   should remain localized, and at this time it appears that WW
   issuance may not be required.

   ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   39527966 39107939 37538021 35758132 35348300 36618309
               38018131 39158047 39618014 39527966