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| Mesoscale Discussion 2096 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680... Valid 220013Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and scattered severe gusts continues from far eastern NM Into parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis show a cold front extending from west-central OK into east-central NM, with a dryline punching northeastward across central NM. Gusty southeast winds persist across the warm sector over much of the South Plains and into southeast NM, with scattered strong to severe cells both north and south of the cold front. Around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE exists within the instability axis, as indicated on the 00Z MAF. Winds in the lowest few km are mostly unidirectional, before veering to southwesterly around 700 mb. Hodographs are therefore primarily straight line, with elongation in the mid to upper levels. While low-level shear is stronger along the cold front, much of this will remain ineffective due to the cooler air mass. However, the South Plains portion of the front is a bit more favorably oriented for storms to potentially interact for a longer duration before becoming elevated, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, hail appears to be the primary risk this evening. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32190387 32940368 33690364 34470409 34690452 35190547 35670523 35750420 35430237 35240148 34930115 34080093 33340144 32260234 31850310 31910362 32190387 |
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