Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2095

   Mesoscale Discussion 2095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern KY...far western VA...and
   eastern TN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

   Valid 222337Z - 230100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may
   spread east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening, though a
   downstream watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Along an eastward-moving cold front, two clusters of
   loosely organized thunderstorms in Middle TN and eastern KY are
   tracking east-southeastward toward the eastern edge of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 616 this evening. Around 30-40 kt of midlevel
   west-northwesterly flow (per JKL/OHX VWPs) oriented perpendicular to
   the front will aid in the maintenance of these storms for the next
   hour or so -- before reaching the higher terrain. This will
   especially be the case into eastern TN -- where lower/middle 80s
   temperatures and upper 60s dewpoints remain in place. As a result,
   the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail may spread east of
   the watch. However, given the localized nature of the ongoing severe
   risk, a downstream watch is not expected.

   ..Weinman.. 08/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36108557 36278521 36698420 37368336 37718261 37788245
               37728207 37498184 37088184 36478219 35828309 35298452
               35308514 35518552 35808569 36108557 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN