Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2094

   Mesoscale Discussion 2094
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas...southwest
   Tennessee...northern Mississippi and Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615...

   Valid 222333Z - 230100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of strong to severe storms continue over
   portions of WW615. Damaging winds remain possible with these storms.
   Some risk may continue into parts of northwestern AL this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, regional radar showed several clusters
   of strong to severe storms ongoing across portions of WW615. The
   most intense of these clusters, located near the MS/TN border has
   produced recent measured severe gusts. This should continue across
   portions of southern TN and northern MS where moderate to large
   buoyancy and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear are present and supporting
   more organized multicell clusters. High PWATS (2+ inches) and
   clustering will promote stronger downdrafts capable of
   damaging/isolated severe gusts.

   The primary severe risk appears most likely along the southwestern
   flank of the leading cluster across north-central MS where stronger
   low-level convergence along the existing outflow may preferentially
   support maintenance of the ongoing storms/new development this
   evening. However, some severe risk is possible east of WW615 into
   parts of northwestern AL this evening. However, the environment
   farther east is cooler and somewhat drier with less overall
   buoyancy. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent also casts
   some uncertainty on longevity. Regardless, enough buoyancy and steep
   low-level lapse rates likely exist to support an isolated damaging
   wind threat.

   ..Lyons.. 08/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   35318939 35348856 35238754 34778728 34378730 33998745
               33528765 33198802 32958832 32768902 32778913 32919006
               33349101 34169239 34589310 34899320 35109096 35318939 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN