Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2079

   Mesoscale Discussion 2079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO...southwest NE...western KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613...

   Valid 220416Z - 220545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 613
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue with an ongoing
   supercell. Trends are being monitored for any storm clustering with
   time.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing supercell across northeast CO will continue
   to pose a short-term threat for localized hail and severe gusts as
   it moves south-southeastward. Recent objective mesoanalyses depict
   an 850-mb moisture axis extending southeast from ongoing convection
   into northwest KS, and recent VWPs from KGLD indicate a
   strengthening nocturnal low-level jet. These factors may allow for
   some increase in storm coverage and clustering (as depicted by some
   recent HRRR/RRFS runs), within a favorably unstable (MUCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg) and sufficiently sheared environment. However, the
   current isolated nature of the ongoing threat and increasing MLCINH
   with time result in uncertainty regarding overnight severe potential
   downstream. 

   Some increase in elevated storm coverage has recently been noted
   over far southwest NE, and if convection can continue to increase in
   coverage later tonight, then steep lapse rates above the surface and
   relatively large DCAPE could support modest cold pool generation and
   an increasing severe-wind threat, despite increasing near-surface
   stability. Local watch expansion and/or new watch issuance will be
   possible if trends support an increasing downstream severe threat
   overnight.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 08/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41120338 40850226 40320117 39550048 38840033 38410047
               38210148 39000283 39570339 40260368 41120338 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN