Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2069

   Mesoscale Discussion 2069
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608...

   Valid 211908Z - 212115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 608
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging downbursts continues across
   parts of the Carolinas.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the past couple of hours
   has depicted mostly transient, outflow-dominant convection. Despite
   the poor organization of the convection thus far, deep/robust
   updraft pulses remain evident in echo top and differential
   reflectivity imagery. Additionally, occasional strong, to perhaps
   severe, downbursts have been noted as the deeper convective cores
   collapse. While measured wind gusts have largely remained in the
   30-40 mph range, small swaths of 45-55 mph gusts are likely embedded
   within the more intense downbursts based on velocity data. 

   Continued daytime heating has largely eroded any lingering
   inhibition, exemplified by the recent uptick in convection along
   outflow boundaries and a weak surface trough. Low-level lapse rates
   are also steepening to 7.5 to 8 C/km as temperatures warm into the
   low to mid 90s across central/north-central SC in between two more
   prominent regions of ongoing convection. This will augment the
   potential for strong downbursts with a corresponding increase in
   wind damage potential. Wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph may occur
   over the next couple of hours as additional convection develops
   along colliding outflow boundaries within this warm air mass.

   ..Moore.. 08/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33728252 34838165 35208126 35398098 35418059 35327839
               35507730 35577676 35417635 35197626 34927635 34757661
               34647727 34367771 34067818 33917855 33687923 33597960
               33448040 33308116 33198177 33218221 33288243 33458254
               33728252 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN