Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2065

   Mesoscale Discussion 2065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131721Z - 131945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a
   tornado may increase into this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early
   this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low
   into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm
   front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther
   south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind
   shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS. 

   In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually
   increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells
   across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While
   low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of
   Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100
   m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor
   occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will
   increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective
   coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment.

   A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado
   cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface
   trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm
   front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed
   as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally
   damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized
   clustering of convection can develop with time.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...

   LAT...LON   32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822
               35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637
               33948592 32638572 32228565