Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2060

   Mesoscale Discussion 2060
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0725 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northern AL...Middle TN...and far
   northeast MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210025Z - 210300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts should increase over the
   next few hours. While a watch is not currently expected, trends will
   be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are evolving within a zone of
   broad low-level confluence extending from parts of Middle/western TN
   into far northern MS. Over the next few hours, increasing
   large-scale ascent preceding a midlevel wave moving across the lower
   OH Valley could support an increase in thunderstorm coverage within
   this zone. Ahead of this activity, a warm and very moist PBL (upper
   70s to near 80 dewpoints) are yielding a corridor of strong
   surface-based buoyancy. While modest deep-layer flow/shear and lack
   of a LLJ should tend to limit convective organization, some
   strengthening of midlevel northwesterly flow accompanying the
   midlevel wave (sampled by upstream VWP) could favor a loosely
   organized cluster of storms. If this evolution occurs, damaging wind
   gusts will be the primary concern. While a gradual increase in
   nocturnal static stability and the modest deep-layer shear may
   temper the overall severe risk, convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 08/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   34468820 34748839 35028832 35358815 35568778 35688713
               35588634 35398583 35038562 34648557 34228586 34058643
               34028727 34168781 34468820 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN