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| Mesoscale Discussion 2057 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 668... Valid 120642Z - 120845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for showers and storms with potential to produce tornadoes may be in the process of diminishing across southeastern Mississippi, but it could still increase across coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent coastal Alabama through 3-5 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Rapid weakening of Francine continues, with notable drying circulating around its southern through southeastern periphery and likely to continue overspreading southeastern Mississippi and the Mobile Bay vicinity during the next few hours. The surface low is in the process of migrating near/northwest through north of the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity. As the north-northeastward motion continues, model forecast soundings indicate that initially enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs across southeastern Mississippi will begin to shrink within the next hour or two. Instability associated with mid/upper 70s surface dew points is probably needed for stronger convection to overcome the warm mid-levels. Aside from immediate coastal areas around Gulf Shores AL, this remains largely offshore, where a number of rotating cells have been evident the past few hours. However, some inland advection still appears possible through daybreak across at least the coastal western Florida Panhandle, where low-level hodographs are still forecast to become sufficiently enlarged and clockwise curved to support at least a conditional risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 29608568 29498600 29488655 29588724 29858786 30118819 30528810 30478737 30438713 30448631 30238586 29608568 |
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