Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2057

   Mesoscale Discussion 2057
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of DelMarVa and far southern NJ

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 605...

   Valid 202242Z - 210015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 605 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado
   continues across parts of Tornado Watch 605.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms with an embedded supercell
   is tracking eastward into parts of the DE Bay. These storms will
   continue tracking eastward along a differential heating boundary and
   ahead of a frontal wave, where enhanced low-level vorticity along
   the boundary and a clockwise-curved low-level hodograph (around 250
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH per DOX VWP) will continue to promote a risk of a
   tornado and damaging wind gusts into far southern NJ in the near
   term.

   Farther south, an increasingly organized line of storms is moving
   into a warm/moist air mass across DelMarVa. The associated strong
   surface-based buoyancy and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear oriented
   perpendicular to the evolving gust front will favor damaging wind
   gusts and possibly a brief/embedded tornado.

   ..Weinman.. 08/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38797627 39237538 39317494 39277455 39067456 38617494
               38207566 38067615 38177652 38337666 38797627 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN