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| Mesoscale Discussion 2056 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...far southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 667... Valid 120020Z - 120145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues over the northeastern quadrant of Francine. While storms have not been overly active so far, strong low-level shear remains in place and a greater threat could evolve tonight. DISCUSSION...As of 0015z, the center of Hurricane Francine was located 55 miles southwest of New Orleans, LA. Within the northeastern quadrant, low-level hodographs have continued to enlarge this evening with the HDC VAD showing 500-600 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. While low-level shear remains very strong, east/northeasterly surface flow has prevented the more unstable air mass farther south from moving inland to this point. As the center of Francine continues to move inland, low-level flow should begin to veer, allowing the higher theta-E air mass to move onshore. This looks most likely to occur over eastern portions of WW667 into southern MS and far southwest AL later this evening. Convective cells within the eastern most spiral bands have shown more cellular mode and occasional rotation. Hi-res guidance shows a few of these supercells potentially moving inland tonight. Ahead of these storms, RAP soundings show enlarging hodographs and modest buoyancy (~500-700 J/kg of MLCAPE) that could support the potential for a few tornadoes this evening. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30608816 30298753 30158747 29678755 29548789 29538851 29418889 29308918 29418958 29779059 30059076 30439054 30629042 30938974 30928909 30818852 30608816 |
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