Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2050

   Mesoscale Discussion 2050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...northern
   Arkansas...western Kentucky...western and Middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602...603...

   Valid 200649Z - 200815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602, 603
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds and an isolated tornado
   continues within the watch areas. A local watch extension in time
   may be needed as the scheduled expiration of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 602 at 3 am approaches.

   DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue in a west-east
   zone within a region of modest warm advection at 0645z. Earlier
   reports of measured severe gusts and damage have been received
   across western Kentucky. Latest mesoanalysis depicted
   moderate/strong elevated buoyancy and 35-45 kts of westerly
   effective shear, supporting continued updraft organization and
   severe potential. In the near-term, the increase in storm coverage
   observed on regional radars and related convective overturning
   should result in the severe potential focusing on southern portions
   of WW 602, while continuing across WW 603. A local watch extension
   in time may ultimately be necessary across southern portions of WW
   602 prior to the scheduled 3 am CDT expiration.

   ..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...

   LAT...LON   37449049 37308893 37248756 36938656 36588622 36178620
               35908666 35828754 35818832 35908935 35929012 36039062
               36279083 37009084 37449049 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN