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Mesoscale Discussion 2050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
Areas affected...Western and Central New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092041Z - 092215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe winds are possible with
scattered thunderstorms across western and central New York. The
transient and isolated nature of any severe storms will preclude
watch issuance at this time.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have moved onshore from Lake
Ontario into New York, where the environment is characterized by
relatively modest buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 25-35 kts of
deep-layer shear. Widespread cloudiness has limited daytime heating
in the environment ahead of the convection, with surface
temperatures mostly in the mid-to-upper 60s F. While shear and
slight curvature of the hodograph will support transient storm
organization, the overall severe wind threat will remain isolated
and diminish after dark, and weather watch issuance is unlikely.
..Halbert/Gleason.. 09/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42937947 43227925 43377871 43537769 43827664 44027604
43897563 43507479 43057468 42637471 42317496 42097529
42067554 42267734 42697927 42937947
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