Mesoscale Discussion 0205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi into northwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 151816Z - 151945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for tornadoes continues across northern MS into northwestern AL, particularly with a supercell in Montgomery County. Intense tornadoes (EF3+) are possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved into more discrete supercells, some of which have become dominant relative to other convective elements in the area. Some of these storms have a history of tornadoes, and a supercell in Montgomery County, MS has a persistent mesocyclone that continues to intensify per KDGX and KGWX NEXRAD data. The GWX VAD shows an impressively large and curved hodograph, with nearly 500 m2/s2 effective SRH in just the surface-500 m layer, with about 1000 m2/s2 SRH in the sfc-3 km layer. As such, the ambient environment supports intense tornadoes (EF3+). However, this is contingent on storms benefiting from minimal interference by other nearby storms, including the absorption of smaller storms. If one of the more dominant storms (especially the Montgomery County storm) can obtain a pristine inflow environment, the chance for intense tornado development is high. Damaging gusts are possible, especially with any linear segments that materialize. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33368995 33878950 34318904 34948780 34928698 34568670 33858716 33488837 33408862 33318894 33228937 33198963 33368995
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