Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2049

   Mesoscale Discussion 2049
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Missouri into far northern
   Arkansas...far southern Illinois...western Kentucky...northwestern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602...

   Valid 200404Z - 200530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should continue to pose a severe
   hail threat for several more hours. A tornado also cannot be ruled
   out with cells on the southern periphery of the ongoing thunderstorm
   cluster.

   DISCUSSION...A multicellular cluster, with occasional transient
   supercells, continues to progress eastward over southern MO into far
   northern AR and far southern IL. MRMS MESH continues to indicate
   possible brief instances of severe hail accompanying some of the
   stronger storms within this cluster. Given the intensification of a
   low-level jet atop a decouple boundary layer, elevated buoyancy
   should continue to be advected to and ahead of the cluster, yielding
   2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE amid 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. As
   such, the threat for severe hail will continue with the stronger
   storms. While these storms should remain largely elevated, a cell or
   two could manage to become surface based over the next hour or so
   and pose a sparse tornado risk. However, this scenario appears far
   less likely than that for elevated, severe-hail-producing storms. 

   Elevated buoyancy continues to be advected into the TN Valley area,
   so an eastward extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 602 may be
   needed.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37319247 37468992 37458822 37088758 36358757 35968817
               35888935 35979099 36059187 36179241 37319247 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN