Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2048

   Mesoscale Discussion 2048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0900 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Areas affected...southern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601...

   Valid 200200Z - 200400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 601
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential continues within WW601.

   DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms are ongoing across WW601
   from Tuscon to just west of the White Mountains in Apache/Navajo
   County. A broad outflow boundary exists from central Apache County
   southward across Greenlee/Graham Counties. Surface observations have
   recorded gusts around 45 mph with this feature as it spreads west
   and south with occasional new development along its leading edge. It
   seems likely this feature will continue to move west and south this
   evening eventually moving into the Phoenix Metro. Additional outflow
   may also develop from the south near Tuscon. A recent observed gust
   around 57 mph was reported from the Tuscon Airport.

   The 00z sounding from PHX shows a deeply mixed profiles with very
   steep low-level lapse rates and moderate instability, with MLCAPE
   around 1700 J/kg. Additionally, temperatures are around 105-110 F.
   As storms continue along outflows moving into this hot and deeply
   mixed air mass, it is likely that the damaging wind potential will
   increase through the evening both along and ahead of the outflow and
   with additional thunderstorms.

   ..Thornton.. 08/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   33910963 34330980 34470997 34491008 34511029 34481136
               33911208 33361238 32981257 32661265 32011252 31821240
               31461152 31431070 31461006 31470969 31550935 31730915
               31990909 32220919 32650948 33910963 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH