Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2045

   Mesoscale Discussion 2045
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois...central
   and northern Indiana...western Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 192152Z - 192315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop along a west-to-east
   oriented boundary through the remainder of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have been increasing in
   intensity along a diffuse west-to-east oriented boundary extending
   from central and northern Illinois into western Ohio. Along this
   boundary, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with substantial
   0-3 km CAPE (150-175 J/kg). Furthermore, an 80 kt 300 mb jet streak
   is overspreading the OH Valley, contributing to 50+ kts of effective
   bulk shear (mainly speed shear in the mid to upper levels per RAP
   forecast soundings). Given these conditions, the current thinking is
   that a few of the stronger storms along this baroclinic boundary may
   become transient supercellular, capable of producing a couple
   instances of severe wind/hail or even a brief tornado.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40218970 40349089 40539121 40689113 40989078 41398787
               40708286 40268248 39988279 40058660 40218970 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN