Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2007

   Mesoscale Discussion 2007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into western Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170127Z - 170300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few instances of damaging gusts or hail may accompany
   the stronger storms this evening. The severe threat is expected to
   be isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been gradually intensifying across
   central and eastern MO along remnant outflow boundaries with the
   peak of PBL mixing/destabilization. Despite this fact, nocturnal
   cooling is underway, with MLCINH on the increase per 01Z
   mesoanalysis. Still, residual buoyancy, driven by rich low-level
   moisture (i.e. mid 70s F surface dewpoints) yields over 3000 J/kg
   MLCAPE amid 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. This parameter space
   would support multicells and transient supercells capable of some
   damaging gusts and hail. This threat is quite conditional on the
   large scale given the aforementioned stabilization underway, though
   a locally greater severe threat exists with storms that can anchor
   along a boundary that roughly bisects the St. Louis metro.
   Nonetheless, given the overall expected sparse nature of the severe
   threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   38769202 39209151 39399083 39298961 38848901 38218891
               37818910 37608939 37579016 37659092 37769133 37869163
               38009189 38769202 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN