Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2004

   Mesoscale Discussion 2004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central and southern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

   Valid 162231Z - 170000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible over the next few hours.
   The best chance for severe storms will be with storms moving along
   the leading edge of outflow from earlier storms.

   DISCUSSION...Multicell storms continue to propagate southeastward
   amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, supported mainly by 7-7.5 C/km
   boundary-layer lapse rates and 70s F surface dewpoints. These
   favorable thermodynamic conditions are prevalent along and south of
   an outflow boundary left behind by earlier thunderstorms. Storms
   traversing this boundary will have the best chance for producing a
   damaging or severe gust, and a brief tornado cannot be completely
   ruled out.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39328255 38948090 38438016 37978020 37558051 37488105
               37678195 37898253 38098298 38358317 39328255 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH