Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2003

   Mesoscale Discussion 2003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana into southwestern Ohio
   and northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589...

   Valid 162200Z - 162300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging gusts (a couple of which may be severe) remain
   possible with an ongoing thunderstorm cluster over the next few
   hours. Storms may progress beyond the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 589, which may require a new watch issuance downstream.

   DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven MCS continues to rapidly progress
   southeastward at around 45-50 kts across central and southern IN.
   While wind damage/gust reports have not recently been received, the
   MCS is preceded by 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 20-30 kts of effective
   bulk shear. While the deep-layer shear is relatively weak, the
   well-established cold pool with this MCS continues to propagate
   along a southward-sagging baroclinic boundary, possibly supporting
   tilting of modest localized horizontal vorticity in place. Assuming
   this is the case, it is plausible that the MCS may maintain
   intensity for at least a few more hours. Should this occur, the MCS
   will propagate past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 589 with
   a damaging/severe gust threat. If this scenario becomes more
   apparent, a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be considered.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

   LAT...LON   39718689 39408418 39028326 38618292 38228297 38038353
               37988450 38118537 38348608 38508653 38618687 38828710
               39718689 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH