Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2000

   Mesoscale Discussion 2000
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...south-central Pennsylvania...the Maryland and West
   Virginia Panhandles...and northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 161928Z - 162130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging
   wind gusts is expected to increase late this afternoon into evening.
   A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of an MCV moving from south-central into
   southeast PA, clouds are gradually clearing, allowing for increased
   diabatic heating this afternoon. When coupled with a moist boundary
   layer characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to
   mid 70s F, latest objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 1000-1500
   J/kg with decreasing convective inhibition. Additional air mass
   destabilization is expected through the remainder of the afternoon,
   allowing ongoing QLCSs to spread east into the discussion area.
   Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard with the most intense
   storms, especially in the vicinity of any embedded bowing structures
   that may persist. A brief tornado or two is possible in areas that
   can maintain more of a southerly wind component, where low-level
   shear is locally enhanced.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   38357955 38947931 39407927 40267895 40477848 40397801
               39307761 38237782 37877812 37537857 37497918 37897993
               38357955 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH